🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.